Welcome

Thank you and welcome.

Welcome to my substack, my newsletter, blog, whatever we are calling it these days. Welcome, and thank you. My name is Aaron Zwack, and I am starting this as a way to convey my thoughts onto paper. One of my passions is trying to put the puzzle together that is the general macro landscape, but filtering out what is noise and what is meaningful. With a bullish slant. If you are looking for constant bearish macro analysis, this is not the place. There are good times, and bad times, but the good times far outweigh the bad. With the US stock markets being the greatest wealth creation ever invented in my opinion, we should not be fighting the trend of 10-15% average annual returns in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively.

As my first post, I will keep it short and simple and tell you what to expect here. I will be writing about the movements within macro, and more importantly, the markets that so many of us focus on within the broad macro space.

So much macro can be confusing, over the top, made to be so complex and convoluted, that when you come away reading some macro piece, you have no idea whether it is bullish, bearish, positive, negative, relevant or irrelevant. I was there in my 20’s, consuming as much information as I could possibly read in a day, thinking the way forward was to know everything that was happening all the time. As it turned out, the complexity of all this information not had me constantly on the sidelines in markets, always waiting for the event to come, but it had me constantly bearish, always the next event was going to be the trigger for the coming crash.

I am now 36, and have evolved over the past 5 years when I threw in the towel on the bear side, and started seeing not only markets, but life, from a positive skew, is when things really to change for me. Realizing how much of a return I simply missed out on my 20’s by being bearish all the time while the stock markets went up 15-20 percent a year is one thing I will never forget. But better to learn “late” than to never at all.

Having a far better grasp on macro now compared to my 20’s has helped me actually remain and reaffirm this bullish state of mind. Macro can used as a tool to keep either keep you out or markets, but the best macro should be the analysis and research that keeps you in. There are times when you should be out, no doubt, but it is rare and far more infrequently than almost any macro analyst will say. That’s what I am here writing about. Identifying the majority of time when we should be in, the rare time when we should be out, and the macro analysis on when the odds stack in our favour to do so.

I will leave it there for now. Thanks for reading.

Aaron